Jaguar Mining shares regain ground after deal drama

Stock Market Predictions

TORONTO (Global Markets) - Shares of Jaguar Mining (JAG.N) (JAG.TO) rose as much as 9 percent on Thursday after a roller-coaster two days during which the gold miner's stock soared on speculation of an imminent takeover offer by China's Shandong Gold Mining (600547.SS) and then crashed when no deal materialized.

Jaguar's stock climbed more than 20 percent on Tuesday to C$4.95 on the Toronto Stock Exchange after shares of Shandong, owned by the Shandong Gold Group, were halted pending news on April 6.

But no deal was announced, and on Wednesday, Jaguar's shares fell more than 24 percent in heavy trade. Shortly before the market close the company issued a statement saying it was "not aware of any developments that would merit such trading activity".

Shandong shares were still halted on Thursday.

In November, Global Markets reported that Shandong Gold had made an unsolicited C$9.30 a share cash offer for Jaguar, valuing the company, which owns gold projects in Brazil, at close to C$1 billion ($1 billion). The miner confirmed it had received offers and was undergoing a strategic review.

In March, the company adopted a shareholder rights plan, commonly called a poison pill, "to discourage potentially disruptive or predatory actions".

Analysts are not convinced a deal is imminent. After the company reported dismal fourth quarter results and a lackluster 2012 outlook in March, a number of them downgraded the stock.

"We maintain our view that a premium takeover bid remains a low probability event," wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Curran in a note to clients on April 4.

He added that while the development-stage Gurupi project in northern Brazil is a promising asset, the company's existing mines would be too small to be of interest to Jaguar's peers or to larger producers.

Shares of Jaguar closed up 4.53 percent at C$3.69 on Thursday on the Toronto Stock Exchange amid a broad rally in gold stocks. The stock has lost more than 43 percent of its value since the start of the year.

($1=$0.99 Canadian)

(Reporting by Julie Gordon; Editing by Peter Galloway)