Travelers to post loss, slow buybacks after storms

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NEW YORK (Global Markets) - Devastating tornadoes like the twister that hit Joplin, Missouri, last month will push Travelers Cos Inc (TRV.N) to a second-quarter operating loss and force it to slow down share buybacks, the property insurer said on Friday.

The company also warned of worst-case-scenario industry losses on the recent tornadoes in the United States. Travelers is the second major property insurer, after Allstate Corp (ALL.N), to warn of at least $1 billion in second-quarter catastrophe losses from the series of deadly twisters.

Two companies losing nearly $2.5 billion in less than two months is especially noteworthy, since the entire insurance industry lost $13.6 billion to U.S. catastrophes in all of 2010.

Travelers' and Allstate's peers are likely to experience much of the same. MetLife (MET.N) said late Friday its auto and home insurance business lost as much as $153 million more than expected in April and May.

Travelers shares closed 3.1 percent lower, making them one of the biggest drags on the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI and the second-biggest decliner among S&P insurance shares.

Yet one analyst said there was a silver lining in all the catastrophes that could benefit the company.

"We think the record level of worldwide catastrophe losses will provide a catalyst for firmer insurance rates, and see (Travelers) well positioned to leverage that trend," said Standard & Poor's equity analyst Cathy Seifert in a research note, maintaining a "strong buy" rating on the company.

BUYBACKS AT RISK

The global insurance industry has had an unprecedented start to the year. Even without a major hurricane having made landfall, insurers are on track to post their largest catastrophe losses ever, due largely to earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand and a series of once-in-a-century tornadoes.

Analysts have said buyback programs across the industry were at risk, after years of heavy share repurchases that were driven by limited catastrophe losses and few other good options to deploy growing cash piles.

Analysts polled by Thomson Global Markets I/B/E/S had on average expected Travelers to earn $1.29 per share on an operating basis this quarter. Since late April, eight analysts have cut their second-quarter estimates, according to Thomson Global Markets data, but all of them still expected a profit.

As of Friday, none of the 18 analysts reporting earnings estimates on the company had expected it to lose money this quarter. Travelers has beaten Wall Street's average earnings estimate by at least 20 cents per share for the last three quarters in a row.

$1 BILLION LOSS

The difference this time is the weather. Travelers said Friday that its after-tax catastrophe losses for April and May were likely to be between $1 billion and $1.05 billion.

That is double what the company said it would expect to lose for all catastrophes in an average year, based on its long-term modeling.

As a result, the company will buy back less than $250 million in stock in the second quarter. In the first quarter, repurchases topped $1.1 billion.

In the second half of the year, Travelers said repurchases would be about $400 million in excess of operating income. As of late January, the company's total authorization for repurchases was $6.5 billion.

Travelers shares closed down $1.87 at $59.21. At those levels the stock was at its lowest point in nearly two months.

(Reporting by Ben Berkowitz; editing by John Wallace, Dave Zimmerman, Gary Hill)